Since July 1, we have had 11.46 " of rain. Average seasonal rainfall for February 4th is 18.42". We are now at 62% of our normal rainfall for this date.

CAZ506-050500- NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS- 200 AM PST SAT FEB 4 2012

TODAY: PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 60. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY: RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. && TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION SANTA ROSA 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 SAN RAFAEL 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 NAPA 63 37 64 / 0 0 0

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALBERTA CANADA. THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM DURING THE DAY...ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NIGHTS WILL BE COOL.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEA HAS BEEN THAT A RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WOULD MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH THE WEST COAST RIDGE BY LATE MONDAY...AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CASTS DOUBT ON THE IDEA THAT RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTING LITTLE OR NO RAIN FOR OUR AREA. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST RIDGE IT WILL SPLIT...WITH PART OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OVER THE RIDGE AND THE REST EITHER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE OR SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DRIVING A STRONGER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THEREFORE THIS MODEL HAS HAS BEEN FORECASTING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTS A LESS INTENSE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND DROPS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM SOUTH OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST...PRODUCING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ALONG OUR COAST LATE ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS JUST IN AND IT CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE EAST BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH...THEREBY SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST INDICATES A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY INLAND...IF THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY SOLUTION. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT IF THE 12Z ECMWF WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THEN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD GET WET EVEN IF THIS MODEL VERIFIED.
ONCE THE TUESDAY SYSTEM DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY REBUILD AND PRODUCE MORE DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&& .AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...VFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS KSTS WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.
&& .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR &&